I’ve been thinking about AI a little more lately after some recent conversations. Since OpenAI launched ChatpGPT, it’s arguably taken more investment dollars relative to the return than any other investment vertical in history.
There’s a lot of buzz around it. Buzz is fine and value is better. I’ve spent the past several months working within a few AI driven tools and here’s the thing i’ve found. What’s here today, is not tomorrow’s answer. This is not a statement about the quality of the tools, it’s an assessment of the stage of the industry. We’re still incredibly early.
Let’s take co-pilot in office as the example. It’s fine and it’s limited. If I want to write a formula faster then that’s great. It does that. Honestly that’s not where most of my brain energy is spent though. Email, it’s kind of terrible. Doesn’t have the context I do for what I’m writing to the point that my feedback to Microsoft one night was that “A monkey on cocaine could write an email better than this.” Really I was missing the point. It’s a Co-Pilot, it’s not going to do my job for me yet. At the same time a human co-pilot would be better.
Predictively guessing at what I want to say next has been a thing for years that Google already gave us. When you think about how you work, that feature isn’t really that helpful.
So, as i’ve had opportunity to use it, the better value has been found in applying that to automated tasks I don’t like. Stuff like:
-capture the data from this pdf report into excel every afternoon
-find empty time on my calendar and preschedule this
-give me the tasks from this meeting
Writing my email for me though? That’s a ways off. So the question is, what’s the IRR we’re looking for on this money being thrown here and how can you capitalize on the models beyond basic use of a Chatbot GPT?
Regrets and Perspective
Let’s talk about regrets for a minute. Sometimes, looking back, I wish we would not have sold Unicom. Sometimes, I wish I wouldn’t have removed my position in some property holdings and renegotiated the payment service of the position instead. In the end I did those things. Some of the playout of that was not my favorite, an exit from the purchasing company after many months of deliberation, higher debt service payments, etc.
While that’s all true, I also find myself at a firm that seems to be a better fit for me, and the capital released in several of the transactions from the past several years has served to allow us other freedoms and new ventures. This pic is from a fire pit with one cousin on our property across from our house during Christmas. While i’m not always excited about some of the playouts, I am excited at how it’s allowed me to invest in my family in ways that I otherwise would not have been able to.
Just know that regret isn’t as straightforward as it seems. It’s usually a mix of the good and bad that comes with making decisions with your life. When you look at it all I hope that you, like me, aren’t too upset about the outcomes of your decisions from the past year.
For now i’m going to go back to watching kids around fires. Learn for your past and appreciate your present.