Consipracy Or Just Broken Stuff?

Conspiracy theories are fun and they tend to come out in droves around this time of year. For fun I try to one-up the other person’s crazy. e.g. “The moon landing didn’t happen.” “Oh, you believe there’s a moon?”

Here’s the thing, not all conspiracy theories are wrong, and not all are right. Applying Hanlon’s Razor is important “”Don’t attribute to malice what can be attributed to ignorance.” The question is how do you approach all subjects with a healthy level of scepticism against whatever the subject matter is to sus out the underlying incentives and corresponding actions to that.

Sometimes it’s bad actions, and sometimes the world around us is simply it’s own treatise of what we’ve asked for as a collective of people in a market. I mentioned to someone earlier today that Coca Cola only has 39 grams of sugar. The reason they don’t go higher or lower is because they found out in testing that they sold less on both the over and under. 39 Grams isn’t an evil corp putting too much sugar in so much as it’s what everyone was asking for through the nature of a market.

This leads you to the question of what have you been asking for? Many drips fill a bucket. When you look at the world around you, where are you going with the market and shouldn’t? Where should you be the first drip? Where are you ok with what you’re living with?

Seek Wisdom

I’ve been managing a situation with my staff that is causing stress lately. The phrase “most people overreact as quickly as possible” comes to mind. I’ve been using it a lot this week and helping lead people to slow down and take a breath.

In the middle of that, I sent one team member this list of old sayings about words. They cannot all be applied together, they’re individual. So you’ll see the conflict on some. I read a book of them for at least one month out of every year. If you read these particular sayings below once per week for the next year, I think it’ll pay dividends on how you navigate what you say. You’ll find yourself speaking up at times you wouldn’t have before and find yourself not saying things you might have otherwise said.

->”When words are many, sin is not absent, but he who holds his tongue is wise.”
->”The mouth of the fool is his ruin, but the wise man’s lips guard him.”
->”Even a fool is thought wise when he keeps silent, and discerning when he holds his tongue.”
->”Sin is not ended by multiplying words, but the prudent hold their tongues”
->”The soothing tongue is a tree of life, but a perverse tongue crushes the spirit”
->”Death and life are in the power of the tongue, and those who love it will eat its fruits”
->”Just as damaging as a madman shooting a deadly weapon is someone who lies to a friend and then says, I was only joking”
->”Patience can persuade a prince, and soft speech can break bones”
->”Kind words are like honey— sweet to the soul and healthy for the body”
->”Speak up for those who cannot speak for themselves; ensure justice for those being crushed”

Stories behind the Stuff

I used to think this house was obscene. Clark Griswold unrestrained. Then I heard the story behind the lights. The family who lived there started this so their daughter could see the lights while in the hospital one Christmas. It’s amazing glow knowing the story behind something, having the context, gives something an entirely meaning.

How true is this also for people? What are the stories you don’t see. How could they change your experience of a person? What are the other questions you might need to ask yourself or those you lead?

Make Sense of Negative Turns

Victor Frankl’s thesis about life is that negative turns in a person’s life are always bearable if they have a context, if they’re in a story framework. This is also true about your career. Take some time and think through the positive and negative turns of your career journey. You’ll be able to pull out some patterns that can help inform what you should do in the future and what you shouldn’t do in the future.

How often do you step back and take a breath to review? How aware are you of your own journey here?

Revenue Quality

Not all revenue is created equal and not all money is as green.

Business is not about how much you make, it’s about how much you keep.

There are times that you face a realistic situation where you drop lower topline and increase earnings below the line. Just takes knowing your numbers enough to see the path.

Business owners, ask yourself this: if you took a hit on your revenue but your earnings grew, would you do it?

First Principles

Employee asking me about their internet being out for a chunk of Monday. Worried they’re going to get docked pay.

First question I had: Aren’t you salaried?
Them: Yes.
Me: I don’t know why that matters then.
Them: Ok that’s cool.

Next question I had: In those situations, do you have a laptop?
Them: Yes.
Me: So you could go offsite somewhere with internet in the future?
Them: I can go to ________, or to family’s.
Me: I know that’s not ideal , neither is doing nothing for the same reason.
Them: True on both. I’ll go to family’s in the future.

Two things for us
1. Let’s think by first principles –> If they’re salaried, stop thinking about hours as directly.
2. Ask questions that help your staff begin to solve their own problems. –> If you see an employee just sitting there because of something external. Push them to a place where they have to think about that. Let them solve it

Best Future Skill

The biggest predictor of success in the future of every organization will be delegation. With the advent of agents, even if your over or under on if agents with action will be delivered within 2 years, the ability for every entry level employee 10x their work by delegating tasks to agents is a huge benefit driver.

Have you imagined what it will look like for your business’ top line increasing by an order of magnitude at 3x – 4x and only growing staff by 10%? What are the skills your team needs to do that? How do you train for it?

Markets Both Benefit and Constrain

Years ago I was in a conversation with someone who was asking some curious, albeit weighted questions around the subject of using the Office365 product suite over GSuite. It was a decision made in this organization prior to my coming on-board, but honestly I felt it was a good decision and supported it. One train of questioning was about some feature set related to cloud first solutions and collaboration features. The unfortunate part of the conversation is that, unless there’s a genuine intellectual curiosity about the subject, going into all the ins and outs of cost analysis and directionality is generally useless since it won’t be heard well.

It didn’t matter that the year was 2016, Satya Nadella had just started 2 years prior, the consent agreement that constrained much of their product development had ended only 5 years previously, and they were consistently retooling towards a cloud first posture. It didn’t even matter that the O365 was, even then, a greater ROI in terms of cost/feature comparable to GSuite. The person did not understand the market situations that led up to that moment and were just trying to get through their job.

It makes sense. So many times i’m in the same boat and judge a tool harshly without knowing further context into the whys and hows.

Obviously, we’re in a different world now. Not saying Microsoft is THE way, that very much depends on individual use cases. It is A way, and their innovation chops have been proven over the past decade. Full disclosure on my cards, in terms of use i’m at a 50/50 split. There are 2 organizations I work in that use GSuite and 2 that use O365. There are specific reasons you would use one or the other but none of those reasons are that one is better than the other.

Here’s the big idea: judging a product maker without a further understanding of the market dynamics that drove their product in one direction or another doesn’t help you understand something in a nuanced way where you can capitalize on it for greater returns. At the end of the day, a hard stance on a product isn’t the job. Making good decisions and understanding the nuance of those decisions in order to produce value for an organization is.

I’m interested in who else has run into this problem. Is there a “succesful” tool (good TAM, SOM, SAM) you look at that you think is THE WORST that you might need to re-underwrite?

Net Worth Isn’t Cash

Let’s talk about wealth for a minute. There has been talk about the rich paying their fair share. Someone made a comment to me the other day that anyone who is a billionaire should be able to pay some part of that into taxes. I had to explain why it’s not that simple. To be clear of my cards, i’m currently in an income level that places me in the top 20% but not the top 1% by any stretch. The place I sit is in the one that is the most taxed. So don’t get me wrong, that’s not exciting. Simultaneously, when you look at the percentages the highest percentages are in the top 20% by a long run. How asset values are discussed mostly involves a lot of financial magic that equates to pulling a rabit out of a hat, or in this case a rabit out of air.

Net Worth Calculations
Most of net worth, what we use to qualify someone as a millionaire or billionaire, is based on total assets. So companies are a portion of this issues. To bring it to a ground level, this means that your house is part of what qualifies your net worth. So, taxing on this at a federal level would be equivocal to having to to an appraisal of your house every year. (It’s arguable that this occurs already because of property taxes. So imagine that frustrating process occuring over and over again across everything you own.)

Valuations are problematic
The problem is less about your home value. That is a well trodden path. The problem is more in the private companies you own that are currently not taxable and figuring out the value of them. I was discussing an equity splitout of a potential business with some friends last week. To be clear, we’re discussing splitting equity of something that has $0 of value. Now, if someone wanted to buy that “company” right now at $10000 then the value would automatically go from $0 to $10000. You could tax that right? Sure, but all that means is the person who just bought it is having to pay taxes on $10000 of something that has earned literally $0. Valuations work similar to this. They aren’t based on the past performance of a business so much as an expected future reward.

There’s a reason that realization is encoded in our tax law.
To the previous section about the magic of valuations there’s a great MIT article called “If you’re so smart, why aren’t you rich?” and the truth of that article resounds here. No one has a great read on the pulse of this kind of thing and everyone can argue for a different number. Realization is a big deal because it’s the actual money made and from which someone might benefit. So that’s less about what you own and more about what you make.

Any move away from the foundational thoughts around realization, even with the constraints I’ve seen on proposals about how something like this would work, seem like something that would be extremely difficult to codify. This seems like a harder path than allowing for innovation that would increase our GDP.

What about you? Do you think this is more helpful than other levers we could pull?

Simple Explanations Show Understanding

Something I’ve noticed in some conversations is when a person tells me something is complex and difficult to explain it has become a red flag for me. I try to go by the napkin rule. If I can’t draw it out on a diner napkin over lunch with someone then it’s possible I don’t really understand the first principles of the subject.

To be clear, there are some things that truly are complex. Any discrete structures and algorithms class will teach you that is true. Even so, that same subject can be broken down to foundational elements that can be explained.

W2 multiple is a great example of this. I’ve seen very odd calculations of this. Things where someone looked at all the time a person was putting that was billable and non-billable, etc. The measures i’ve seen this way and their use case made sense because the term was being used as a descriptor of how hard someone was working. The thing is, that is not a W2 multiple.

Simply put W2 multiple is how much revenue you get per W2 payout. e.g. if you earn $120,000 and you pay out $60,000 then your W2 multiple is 2 because $120,000/$60,000=2. If you use any other calculation and call it W2 multiple then you’re saying the wrong thing and there is a high potential that others are hearing the wrong thing.

I’m using W2 multiple as the example, but we can say the same thing about many areas like this. When you say EBITDA, don’t say “community adjusted EBITDA” because that’s not a thing <cough>WeWork</cough>. If you’re “full stack”, please understand hardware too. Containerization is needed but it’s not the full stack.

With industry standard terms it helps to use the industry standard definition. If you don’t know how to define some of those things then it’s possible you don’t know your job as well as you think you do. I’m still there many times. What’s the goal then? Not to not discuss, the goal is to be aware, curious, and questioning. As questions and approach as a learner not as a learned. For me this has to stay true. My current thing i’m learning is containerization so I can increase my BS meter when talking to devs. Let’s all stay curious.

What about you? Please comment, what are you learning?